NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains: System One is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System Two is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Examining how both systems function within the mind, Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities as well as the biases of fast thinking and the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and our choices. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, he shows where we can trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking, contrasting the two-system view of the mind with the standard model of the rational economic agent. Kahneman's singularly influential work has transformed cognitive psychology and launched the new fields of behavioral economics and happiness studies. In this path-breaking book, Kahneman shows how the mind works, and offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and personal lives--and how we can guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Noise

The work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has transformed the study of judgment and decision-making, and penetrated related disciplines such as economics, finance, marketing, law and medicine. In recognition of these achievements, Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003. This special issue presents ongoing research inspired by both Kahneman and Tversky. It covers many of the central themes the heuristics and biases of judgment and prediction, framing effects, assessments and predictions of utility that made their work so innovative. The specially written papers illustrate the range and depth of this work, and emphasise its continued relevance to current research.

Judgement and Choice: Perspectives on the Work of Daniel Kahneman

Attention and Effort

Thinking, Fast and Slow ...in 30 minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the important lessons on decision-making outlined in the New York Times best seller Thinking, Fast and Slow. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, author Daniel Kahneman gets to the bottom of how to make good decisions and when to trust your intuition. Kahneman wants readers to avoid putting too much weight on acting quickly on their intuition when making decisions. He presents the concept of humans "thinking fast and slow"—the idea that human thought can be divided into two categories: slow and painstaking thought, and quick, intuitive thought. Through detailed research and real-life examples, Thinking, Fast and Slow teaches readers when to apply each type of thought in order to improve everything from playing the stock market to increasing personal happiness. Thinking, Fast and Slow will change the way you think, and improve the quality of your decisions, both large and small. Understand the key ideas of Thinking, Fast and Slow in a fraction of the time, with tools such as: A concise synopsis examining the principles of Thinking, Fast and Slow In-depth analysis of key concepts behind Thinking, Fast and Slow: the two selves, and the two distinct thinking systems—the intuitive System 1 and the effortful System 2 Illustrative case studies demonstrating Kahneman's groundbreaking research in behavioral economics Real-world applications for applying the theories in Thinking, Fast and Slow to everyday life Critical reception to Thinking, Fast and Slow, highlighting important arguments by major publications and thought leaders As with all books in the 30 Minute Expert Series, this book is intended to be purchased alongside the reviewed title, Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Thinking, Fast and Slow . . . in 30 minutes

This book brings together the best of current global research on the measurement and understanding of international differences in well-being

International Differences in Well-Being

Learn why bad decisions happen to good managers--and how to make better ones. If you read nothing else on decision making, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of articles in the Harvard Business Review archive and selected the most important ones to help you and your organization make better choices and avoid common traps. Leading experts such as Ram Charan, Michael Mankins, and Thomas Davenport provide the insights and advice you need to: Make bold decisions that challenge the status quo Support your decisions with diverse data Evaluate risks and benefits with equal rigor Check for faulty cause-and-effect reasoning Test your decisions with experiments Foster and address constructive criticism Defeat indecisiveness with clear accountability

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions (with Featured Article Before You Make That Big Decision... by Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony)

The nature of well-being is one of the most enduring and elusive subjects of human inquiry. Well-Being draws upon the latest scientific research to transform our understanding of this ancient question. With contributions from leading authorities in psychology, social psychology, and neuroscience, this volume presents the definitive account of current scientific efforts to understand human pleasure and pain, contentment and despair. The distinguished contributors to this volume combine a rigorous analysis of human sensations, emotions, and moods with a broad assessment of the many factors, from heredity to nationality, that bear on our well-being. Using the tools of experimental science, the contributors confront the puzzles of human likes and dislikes. Why do we grow accustomed and desensitized to changes in our lives, both good and bad? Does our happiness reflect the circumstances of our lives or is it determined by our temperament and personality? Why do humans acquire tastes for sensations that are initially painful or unpleasant? By examining the roots of our everyday likes and dislikes, the book also sheds light on some of the more extreme examples of attraction and aversion, such as addiction and depression. Among its wide ranging inquiries, Well-Being examines systematic differences in moods and behaviors between genders, explaining why women suffer higher rates of depression and anxiety than men, but are also more inclined to express positive emotions. The book also makes international comparisons, finding that some countries' populations report higher levels of happiness than others. The contributors deploy an array of methods, from the surveys and questionnaires of social science to psychological and physiological experiments, to develop a comprehensive new approach to the study of well-being. They show how the sensory pleasures of the body can tells us something about the higher pleasures of the mind and even how the effectiveness of our immune system can depend upon the health of our social relationships.

Well-Being

Can Normative and Descriptive Analysis be Reconciled?

Daniel Kahneman adalah salah satu pemikir paling penting abad ini. Gagasannya berdampak mendalam dan luas di berbagai bidangÑtermasuk ekonomi, pengobatan, dan politik. Dalam buku yang sangat dinanti-nantikan ini, Kahneman menjelaskan dua sistem yang mendorong cara kita berpikir. Sistem 1 bersifat cepat, intuitif, dan emosional; Sistem 2 lebih pelan, lebih bertujuan, dan lebih logis. Kahneman menunjukkan kemampuan luar biasaÑjuga kekurangan dan bias yang dimiliki olehÑberpikir cepat, serta mengungkapkan dampak kesan intuitif pada pikiran dan perilaku kita. Dengan mengetahui cara kedua sistem itu membentuk penilaian dan keputusan kita, kita bisa memahami, antara lain: ¥ Dampak dari hilangnya antusiasme dan terlalu besarnya kepercayaan pada strategi korporat ¥ Sulitnya memprediksi apa yang membuat kita bahagia kelak ¥ Tantangan untuk membuat kerangka yang jelas tentang risiko di tempat kerja serta rumah ¥ Dampak mendalam dari bias kognitif pada segala sesuatu, mulai dari bertransaksi di pasar bursa sampai merencanakan liburan berikutnya Kahneman mengungkapkan ke mana kita bisa dan tidak bisa memercayakan intuisi kita serta bagaimana kita bisa menarik manfaat dari berpikir lambat. Dia menawarkan pemahaman praktis dan mencerahkan tentang cara menentukan pilihan dalam bisnis serta kehidupan pribadiÑserta bagaimana kita bisa menggunakan teknik berbeda untuk mengatasi kesalahan yang kerap mendatangkan masalah bagi kita.

Thinking, Fast and Slow (Cover Baru)

Developments in the Measurement of Subjective Well-being

Reference Theory of Choice and Exchange

Conflict Resolution

A year's worth of management wisdom, all in one place. We've reviewed the ideas, insights, and best practices from the past year of Harvard Business Review to keep you up-to-date on the most cutting-edge, influential thinking driving business today. With authors from Michael E. Porter to Daniel Kahneman and company examples from P&G to Adobe, this volume brings the most current and important management conversations to your fingertips. This book will inspire you to: Reconsider what keeps your customers coming back Create visualizations that send a clear message Assess how quickly disruptive change is coming to your industry Boost engagement by giving your employees the freedom to break the rules Understand what blockchain is and how it will affect your industry Get your product in customers' hands faster by accelerating your research and development phase This collection of articles includes "Customer Loyalty Is Overrated," by A.G. Lafley and Roger L. Martin; "Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making," by Daniel Kahneman, Andrew M. Rosenfield, Linnea Gandhi, and Tom Blaser; "Visualizations That Really Work," by Scott Berinato; "Right Tech, Wrong Time," by Ron Adner and Rahul Kapoor; "How to Pay for Health Care," by Michael E. Porter and Robert S. Kaplan; "The Performance Management Revolution," by Peter Cappelli and Anna Tavis; "Let Your Workers Rebel," by Francesca Gino; "Why Diversity Programs Fail," by Frank Dobbin and Alexandra Kalev; "What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class," by Joan C. Williams; "The Truth About Blockchain," by Marco Iansiti and Karim R. Lakhani; and "The Edison of Medicine," by Steven Prokesch.

HBR's 10 Must Reads 2018

An Analytical Model of the Semantic Differential

The Causes of Preference Reversal

Learn how to be strategic and formidable in all aspects of negotiation--from reading the room, to staying cool, to achieving the best outcome. If you read nothing else on negotiation, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help you clinch successful deals in business and beyond. This book will inspire you to: Control the negotiation even before you enter the room Understand your counterpart's position and gain their trust Keep your negotiations from becoming confrontations Understand the rules of negotiating across cultures Find ways to expand the pie for all involved Set the stage for a healthy relationship after the ink has dried Know when to walk away from a deal--

On Negotiation

Los grandes principios de Kahneman sobre la toma de decisiones y los factores que influyen en el éxito. Las evidencias son inquietantes: la mayoría de las grandes iniciativas de negocios no rinden fruto. Según los economistas, los malos resultados son una consecuencia inevitable del hecho de que las empresas corran riesgos racionales en situaciones inciertas. Sin embargo, tras analizarlo desde la psicología, los autores consideran que ese fracaso es consecuencia de una toma de decisiones basada en un optimismo ilusorio en lugar de en una valoración racional de ganancias, pérdidas y probabilidades. Los sesgos cognitivos y las presiones organizativas que se hallan en el origen de ese exceso de optimismo son omnipresentes, pero sus efectos pueden atenuarse. Complementando los procesos tradicionales de previsión con el análisis de iniciativas análogas finalizadas con anterioridad, los directivos pueden discernir de manera mucho más precisa el desenlace probable de un proyecto. Esa «visión externa» es un baño de realidad que reduce las probabilidades de que una empresa se embarque en una inversión de tiempo y dinero desastrosa. Los IMPRESCINDIBLES de Conecta, en colaboración con Harvard Business Review, permiten acceder a las grandes ideas de los autores de referencia que inspiran a directivos y profesionales. Este volumen reúne los textos «La falsa ilusión del éxito», de Daniel Kahneman y Dan Lovallo, y «Antes de tomar una gran decisión», de Kahneman, Lovallo y Olivier Sibony. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Kahneman’s profound principles about decision making and the factors that influence success. The evidence is disconcerting: most large business initiatives do not bear fruit. According to economists, the bad results are a consequence of the inevitable fact that businesses take rational risks in uncertain situations. Nevertheless, after analyzing the psychology, the authors consider that this failure is a due to making a decision based on illusory optimism instead of a rational assessment of earnings, losses, and probabilities. Cognitive biases and organizational pressures that are at the origin of this excess of optimism are ubiquitous, but their effects can be lessened. By complementing the traditional forecasting processes with the analysis of similar initiatives completed previously, managers can discern in a much more precise way the probable outcome of a project. This "external vision" is a dose of reality that reduces the chances of a company embarking on a disastrous investment of time and money. The ESSENTIALS of Conecta, in collaboration with Harvard Business Review, allow access to the reference authors’ great ideas that inspire managers and professionals. This volume brings together the texts "The False Illusion of Success," by Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, and "Before Making a Big Decision," by Kahneman, Lovallo and Olivier Sibony.

La falsa ilusión del éxito / Delusion of Success: How optimism suffocates executive decisions

Prospect Theory

Learn to be a better negotiator--and achieve the outcomes you want. If you read nothing else on how to negotiate successfully, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help you avoid common mistakes, find hidden opportunities, and win the best deals possible. This book will inspire you to: Control the negotiation before you enter the room Persuade others to do what you want--for their own reasons Manage emotions on both sides of the table Understand the rules of negotiating across cultures Set the stage for a healthy relationship long after the ink has dried Identify what you can live with and when to walk away This collection of articles includes: "Six Habits of Merely Effective Negotiators" by James K. Sebenius; "Control the Negotiation Before It Begins" by Deepak Malhotra; "Emotion and the Art of Negotiation" by Alison Wood Brooks; "Breakthrough Bargaining" by Deborah M. Kolb and Judith Williams; "15 Rules for Negotiating a Job Offer" by Deepak Malhotra; "Getting to Si, Ja, Oui, Hai, and Da" by Erin Meyer; "Negotiating Without a Net: A Conversation with the NYPD's Dominick J. Misino" by Diane L. Coutu; "Deal Making 2.0: A Guide to Complex Negotiations" by David A. Lax and James K. Sebenius; "How to Make the Other Side Play Fair" by Max H. Bazerman and Daniel Kahneman; "Getting Past Yes: Negotiating as if Implementation Mattered" by Danny Ertel; "When to Walk Away from a Deal" by Geoffrey Cullinan, Jean-Marc Le Roux, and Rolf-Magnus Weddigen.

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Negotiation (with bonus article "15 Rules for Negotiating a Job Offer" by Deepak Malhotra)

PARA ENTENDER CÓMO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR, HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN. —Premio Nobel de Economía Dos médicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagnósticos diferentes a pacientes idénticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra según sea por la mañana o por la tarde, o según se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deberían ser iguales. El ruido está presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la economía, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protección infantil y la contratación. Además, también nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas. Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psicólogos más importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estratégico, nos enseñan a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de análisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirtió Pensar rápido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, prácticos y sencillos para pensar mejor. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Ruido: Un fallo en el juicio humano / Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

"Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how, and how well, people answer such questions. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach. Their approach highlighted the reflexive mental operations that are used to make complex problems manageable, and it generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, law, medicine, management, and political science. This book compiles the most influential elements of psychological research in the heuristics and biases tradition. The various contributions critically analyze the initial work on heuristics and biases, supplement these initial statements with emerging theory and empirical findings in psychology, and point to the most promising areas of future research on judgment."--Publisher description (LoC).

Heuristics and Biases

Un apasionante recorrido por el funcionamiento de la mente de la mano del padre de la psicología conductista y premio Nobel de Economía en 2002: Daniel Kahneman. Daniel Kahneman, uno de los pensadores más importantes del mundo, recibió el premio Nobel de Economía por su trabajo pionero en psicología sobre el modelo racional de la toma de decisiones. Sus ideas han tenido un profundo impacto en campos tan diversos como la economía, la medicina o la política, pero hasta ahora no había reunido la obra de su vida en un libro. En Pensar rápido, pensar despacio, un éxito internacional, Kahneman nos ofrece una revolucionaria perspectiva del cerebro y explica los dos sistemas que modelan cómo pensamos. El sistema 1 es rápido, intuitivo y emocional, mientras que el sistema 2 es más lento, deliberativo y lógico. Kahneman expone la extraordinaria capacidad (y también los errores y los sesgos) del pensamiento rápido, y revela la duradera influencia de las impresiones intuitivas sobre nuestro pensamiento y nuestra conducta. El impacto de la aversión a la pérdida y el exceso de confianza en las estrategias empresariales, la dificultad de predecir lo que nos hará felices en el futuro, el reto de enmarcar adecuadamente los riesgos en el trabajo y en el hogar, el profundo efecto de los sesgos cognitivos sobre todo lo que hacemos, desde jugar en la Bolsa hasta planificar las vacaciones; todo esto solo puede ser comprendido si entendemos el funcionamiento conjunto de los dos sistemas a la hora de formular nuestros juicios y decisiones. Al implicar al lector en una animada reflexión sobre cómo pensamos, Kahneman consigue revelar cuándo podemos confiar en nuestras intuiciones y cuándo no, y de qué modo podemos aprovechar los beneficios del pensamiento lento. Además, ofrece enseñanzas prácticas e iluminadoras sobre cómo se adoptan decisiones en la vida profesional o personal, y sobre cómo podemos usardistintas técnicas para protegernos de los fallos mentales que nos crean problemas. Pensar rápido, pensar despacio cambiará para siempre nuestra manera de pensar sobre cómo pensamos. Reseñas: «Los más entusiastas lo comparan con Galileo y Darwin.» - El Mundo «Considerado uno de los mejores libros de 2011 por The New York Times, The Economist o The Wall Street Journal, Kahneman revela cuándo debemos confiar en nuestras intuiciones para aprovechar los beneficios del pensamiento lento.» - El Economista ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation―each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives―and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.